SeaWorld Hopes For an IPO Splash






Shamu may have new masters. The private equity firm Blackstone today filed to take SeaWorld public at an undisclosed date. Blackstone (BX)  bought the amusement parks in late 2009 for $ 2.7 billion from Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD). At the time, the amusement parks weren’t profitable—they lost $ 58 million in December 2009 alone—but they’ve made money since: In 2011 net income was $ 19 million, and in the first nine months of 2012 it was $ 86 million.


SeaWorld Entertainment runs 11 parks under several different brands: SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Aquatica, and Sesame Place. It also runs Discovery Cove, a park next to the SeaWorld in Orlando that offers luxury cabanas and the ability to swim with dolphins and limits admission to no more than 1,300 people a day. More than half the company’s revenue comes from parks in Florida, several of which are in the theme park mecca, Orlando. In an attempt at the quantification of fun, the IPO filing says the parks combined have 93 animal attractions (Hello, Shamu), 193 rides (lazy rivers, anyone?), 113 shows, 49 play areas (like Halloween mazes), 38 limited-time events, and 113 “distinctive experiences,” such as feeding penguins.






SeaWorld’s filing makes clear what anyone who’s ever purchased an outrageously priced amusement park soda already knows—the real profit comes from food and merchandise. In the nine months through September, SeaWorld spent just $ 99 million on food and goods that brought in $ 445 million in revenue. Compare that with the $ 560 million it cost to operate the parks, which brought in $ 716 million in ticket sales. The average customer spent $ 22.39 on “in-park” spending, the filing says. That’s on top of the nearly $ 35 the average person spent on admission.


The filing points out some unique risk factors. Blackstone will keep a controlling share in SeaWorld, which could lead to a conflict of interest, because Blackstone also owns a “substantial stake” in the company that owns Legoland theme parks. And then there are the animals. They are susceptible to infectious diseases, the filing says, and dangers lurk in their interactions with humans, too. “Injuries or death, while rare, have occurred in the past and may occur in the future,” it says. So Shamu and his buddies are both assets and liabilities.


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Afghan bomber attacks near major US base






KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — A vehicle driven by a suicide bomber exploded at the gate of a major U.S. military base in eastern Afghanistan on Wednesday, killing the attacker and three Afghans, Afghan police said. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.


Police Gen. Abdul Qayum Baqizai said a local guard who questioned the vehicle driver at the gate of Camp Chapman was killed along with two civilians and the assailant. The camp is located adjacent to the airport of the capital of Khost province, which borders Pakistan. Chapman and nearby Camp Salerno had been frequently targeted by militants in the past, but violent incidents have decreased considerably in recent months.






Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in an email that the bomber targeted Afghan police manning the gate and Afghans working for the Americans entering the base. He claimed high casualties were inflicted.


NATO operates with more than 100,000 troops in the country, including some 66,000 American forces. It is handing most combat operations over to the Afghans in preparation for a pullout from Afghanistan in 2014. Militant groups, including the Taliban, rarely face NATO troops head-on and rely mainly on roadside bombs and suicide attacks.


NATO forces and foreign civilians have also been increasingly attacked by rogue Afghan military and police, eroding trust between the allies.


On Tuesday, the Interior Ministry said a policewoman who killed an American contractor in Kabul a day earlier was a native Iranian who came to Afghanistan and displayed “unstable behavior” but had no known links to militants.


The policewoman, identified as Sgt. Nargas, shot 49-year-old Joseph Griffin, of Mansfield, Georgia, on Monday, in the first such shooting by a woman in the spate of insider attacks. Nargas walked into a heavily-guarded compound in the heart of Kabul, confronted Griffin and shot him once with her pistol.


The U.S-based security firm DynCorp International said on its website that Griffin was a U.S. military veteran who earlier worked with law enforcement agencies in the United States. In Kabul, he was under contract to the NATO military command to advise the Afghan police force.


The ministry spokesman, Sediq Sediqi, told a news conference that Nargas, who uses one name like many in the country, was born in Tehran, where she married an Afghan. She moved to the country 10 years ago, after her husband obtained fake documents enabling her to live and work there.


A mother of four in her early 30s, she joined the police five years ago, held various positions and had a clean record, he said. Sediqi produced an Iranian passport that he said was found at her home.


No militant group has claimed responsibility for the killing.


The chief investigator of the case, Police Gen. Mohammad Zahir, said that during interrogation, the policewoman said she had plans to kill either the Kabul governor, city police chief or Zahir himself, but when she realized that penetrating the last security cordons to reach them would be too difficult, she saw “a foreigner” and turned her weapon on him.


There have been 60 insider attacks this year against foreign military and civilian personnel, compared to 21 in 2011. This surge presents another looming security issue as NATO prepares to pull out almost all of its forces by 2014, putting the war against the Taliban and other militant groups largely in the hands of the Afghans.


More than 50 Afghan members of the government’s security forces also have died this year in attacks by their own colleagues. The Taliban claims such incidents reflect a growing popular opposition to the foreign military presence and the Kabul government.


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Police investigate NBC News anchor for showing gun clip






(Reuters) – NBC News anchor David Gregory is being investigated by police after displaying what he said was a high-capacity gun clip on Sunday’s broadcast of “Meet the Press,” Washington‘s Metropolitan Police Department said Wednesday.


Gregory held up what appeared to be a 30-round gun magazine – which would be barred under Washington municipal code – while hosting the nationally broadcast interview with National Rifle Association Chief Executive Officer Wayne LaPierre.






“Here is a magazine for ammunition that carries 30 bullets,” Gregory said as he held aloft the black cartridge, according to video posted on the network’s website.


“Now isn’t it possible that, if we got rid of these, if we replaced them and said ‘Well, you could only have a magazine that carries five bullets or ten bullets,’ isn’t it just possible that we can reduce the carnage in a situation like Newtown?” Gregory asked LaPierre.


“I don’t think it’s what will work,” LaPierre responded.


The network had contacted the police department prior to Sunday’s broadcast “inquiring if they could use a high capacity magazine for the segment,” police spokesman Araz Alali said on Wednesday.


NBC was informed that possession of a high-capacity magazine was not permissible and their request was denied.”


Alali, the police spokesman, declined to elaborate on the investigation into NBC.


Washington’s municipal code prohibits possession, sale or transfer of “any large capacity ammunition feeding device, regardless of whether the device is attached to a firearm.”


The maximum penalty for conviction on such a charge is a $ 1,000 fine and one year in prison.


NBC spokeswoman Erika Masonhall, contacted by email, said the network had no comment on the investigation.


After the broadcast, which originated in Washington, a number of bloggers and websites questioned Gregory’s actions and the legality of the gun clip.


(Reporting by Chris Francescani and Paul Eckert; Editing by Paul Thomasch, Andrew Hay and Gunna Dickson)


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Justice Sotomayor refuses to block contraceptives mandate






(Reuters) – U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor has refused to block enforcement starting next week of a requirement in President Barack Obama‘s 2010 healthcare overhaul that some companies provide insurance coverage for contraceptive drugs and devices.


In an order issued on Wednesday, Sotomayor said two for-profit companies controlled by Oklahoma City billionaire David Green and his family did not qualify for an injunction while they challenge the requirement in court.






Hobby Lobby Stores Inc, an arts and crafts chain with more than 500 stores, and Mardel Inc, a chain of 35 Christian-themed bookstores, said it violated their religious beliefs to require that their group health plans cover treatments that could induce abortions.


They said they face possible fines of $ 1.3 million a day if they disobey the mandate, which takes effect on January 1.


Sotomayor, who hears emergency appeals from the 10th Circuit, said it was not “indisputably clear” that Hobby Lobby and Mardel deserved an injunction, noting that lower courts have been divided in similar cases on whether temporary relief is proper.


“Even without an injunction pending appeal, the applicants may continue their challenge to the regulations in the lower courts,” and following a final judgment ask the Supreme Court at that time to consider their appeal, she said.


Sotomayor did not rule on the merits of the companies’ religious-based claims.


Kyle Duncan, general counsel for the nonprofit Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, which represents the chains, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. At least 42 lawsuits have been filed over the issue, the fund has said.


Hobby Lobby and Mardel claimed that the contraceptives provision violated the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, as well as the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 1993.


But on November 19, Oklahoma federal judge Joe Heaton refused to issue a preliminary injunction, saying the chains did not have the same religious rights as Green family members. Then on Thursday, the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver refused to issue a injunction during the chains’ appeal.


Forbes magazine in September called David Green, 71, the 79th richest American, with a net worth of $ 4.5 billion.


The case is Hobby Lobby Stores Inc et al v. Sebelius et al, U.S. Supreme Court, No. 12A644.


(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)


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Home prices rose in ninth straight month: S&P






NEW YORK (Reuters) – Single-family home prices rose in October for nine months in a row, reinforcing the view the domestic real estate market is improving and should bolster the economy in 2013, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday.


The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, stronger than the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters.






“Looking over this report, and considering other data on housing starts and sales, it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, said in a statement.


While record low mortgage rates and modest job growth should keep the housing recovery on track, analysts cautioned home prices face downward pressure from a likely pickup in the sales of foreclosed and distressed properties and reduced buying investors and speculators.


Prices in the 20 cities rose 4.3 percent year over year, beating expectations for a rise of 4.0 percent.


Las Vegas posted the biggest monthly rise on a seasonally adjusted basis at 2.4 percent, followed by a 1.7 percent increase in San Diego, the latest Case-Shiller data showed.


“Higher year-over-year price gains plus strong performances in the Southwest and California, regions that suffered during the housing bust, confirm that housing is now contributing to the economy,” Blitzer said.


Housing contributed 10 percent to the overall U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, while the sector represented less than 3 percent of gross domestic product, he said.


Last week, the government said U.S. GDP expanded at a stronger-than-expected 3.1 percent annualized pace in the third quarter.


Excluding seasonal factors, however, home prices in 12 of the 20 cities fell in October from September as home values tend to decline in fall and winter, Blitzer said.


Chicago experienced the largest non-seasonally adjusted decline at 1.5 percent, followed by a 1.4 percent fall in Boston.


(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)


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Toronto reaches skyward, but how dark the clouds?






TORONTO (Reuters) – Barry Fenton walked to the bank of floor-to-ceiling windows in his 30th-floor uptown Toronto penthouse suite and declared, “This is the best view of the city.”


To the south, a mass of steel-and-glass skyscrapers glinted in the bright autumn sun. Several cranes were in motion on unfinished buildings, a common sight in a city in the midst of a residential building boom.






“If you look around the core, every building you look at has a different look to it, a different ambience,” said the energetic co-founder of Lanterra Developments, one of the city’s most active builders. “That’s important.”


Fenton, 56, says he is confident the city’s condominium market will remain strong — despite warnings that it is all moving too far, too fast — and has an ambitious lineup for future development. And he is not alone in his optimism.


Toronto‘s seams are bursting with new condo and hotel towers designed by star architects like Frank Gehry and built by famed developers like Donald Trump.


But Fenton and others who see Toronto emerging from its “pokey” past — as a columnist in the Globe and Mail recently described it — face some formidable obstacles: an infrastructure buckling under soaring density rates, the laws of supply and demand and preservationists who say too many new towers are destroying the city’s character.


Canada’s central bank drew a bead on the city of 2.6 million this month in its weighty “Financial System Review,” warning of “potential future supply imbalances” in the condo market.


The Bank of Canada noted that the number of unsold condominiums in pre-construction has doubled, to 14,000, over the past year.


Greater Toronto home sales have slowed after years of steady increases. Sales fell 16 percent in November from the same month a year ago, according to the Toronto Real East Board. So far, however, prices are flattening, not falling, as some analysts have predicted.


In defiance of warnings by the central bank and economists, two mega-projects were unveiled within days of each other in October — a three-tower condo complex to be designed by Gehry and a multi-tower office project that includes a massive casino.


RACE TO THE TOP


More skyscrapers — 147 of them — are being built in Toronto than anywhere in North America, according to Emporis, the German data provider. That is twice as many as in New York, a city with about three times the population.


Toronto is getting taller fast. Fifteen buildings that will be more than 150 meters (492 feet) high are under construction, more than anywhere in the western hemisphere.


The recently completed Trump International Hotel topped out at 277 meters, just shy of Toronto’s tallest skyscraper, the 72-story First Canadian Place, which is 298 meters. That height could be exceeded by a couple of major projects on the drawing boards, including the Mirvish project.


(The city’s tallest freestanding structure, however, is the CN Tower, which soars over Toronto at 553 meters.)


“Toronto is creating a very sustainable future by building condos downtown,” said Daniel Libeskind, the American architect, who was in Toronto in October for a ceremony for one of his latest projects, the 57-story L Tower, with its sweeping, curvaceous, design that rises above the city’s modernist Sony Center for Performing Arts.


“It fights urban sprawl and brings people into the heart of the city.”


While building in big American cities and in Western Europe cratered following the financial crisis four years ago, Toronto never stopped booming. Demand for residential space has been strong, and while the office market has also been healthy, most of the new developments have been for condo projects.


Lanterra’s Fenton said his company has built some 9,000 condominium units in Toronto over the past 10 years and now has “in the hopper” up to 6 million square feet of property in downtown Toronto that is being rezoned for new projects.


Lanterra gained prominence over the past five years for the development of Maple Leaf Square, which included two condo towers, a hotel and office space, near the city’s hockey shrine, Air Canada Center, on land that had sat vacant for years.


Now it is “one of the hottest places to be,” said Fenton.


“ONE TOWER LEADS TO ANOTHER”


Some worry that Toronto can’t handle much more development.


“We have accumulated a serious infrastructure deficit,” wrote Ken Greenberg, a Toronto architect, in the Globe and Mail in October. “We have failed to make the investments in public transit that are urgently needed. Our narrow sidewalks and poorly designed streets are already jammed.”


He criticized the city officials and developers for a lack of coordinated planning. “One tower leads to another,” he said.


Despite decades of debate about transportation policy, Toronto has just two subway lines, a fleet of charming but lumbering streetcar lines and crumbling roadways.


Commuters in Toronto spend at least 80 minutes in traffic a day, on average — worse than what commuters face in London or Los Angeles — according to the Toronto Board of Trade.


Toronto’s City Planning Department did not respond to numerous requests for comment.


There is also concern about soaring neighborhood density rates. The city’s waterfront area has seen the most growth. Its population has soared 134 percent in a decade and is up 66 percent in the past five years, to 43,295, according to city data.


Toronto’s aging energy grid is strained. In July, downtown Toronto endured an eight-hour blackout after a transformer blew due to high demand. There was a similar outage last January.


THE MEGA-PROJECTS


Now two of the most ambitious projects the city has ever seen are being floated.


First out of the gate was theater impresario David Mirvish, who with his father, the late Ed Mirvish, helped create Toronto’s vibrant arts and theater scene.


In early October, Mirvish unveiled a plan for three condominium towers, with up to 85 floors each, that would be the city’s tallest buildings.


A podium at the buildings’ base would house two museums, including one for the Mirvish family’s contemporary art collection.


The Mirvish buildings would be designed by Gehry, the celebrated Canadian-born architect whose 76-story 8 Spruce Street residential tower was just completed in New York.


“These towers can become a symbol of what Toronto can be,” the 83-year-old Gehry said at project’s unveiling. “I am not building condominiums, I am building three sculptures for people to live in.”


Two weeks later, Oxford Properties Group, a Canadian developer with a $ 20 billion global real estate portfolio, announced a $ 3 billion makeover of the downtown convention center, just south of the Mirvish and Gehry project. It envisions a casino, two hotel towers and two office towers that would be among the tallest in the city.


Adam Vaughan, a city councilor whose district would encompass both projects, said a lot more planning is needed. He had kinder words for the Mirvish proposal — “it’s a transformative and astonishing proposal” — than for Oxford’s project, which he called “all out of proportion.”


“It’s time to have a really smart conversation about how we are building this neighborhood because there is a hell of lot of density arriving not just with this project but with all the projects that have been approved,” he said in an interview.


AT THE KIT KAT


Al Carbone, owner for the past three decades of the Kit Kat restaurant, doesn’t think people like Vaughan are listening to him, as the councilor and other politicians are not heeding the growing concerns about the rapid pace of development.


He said buildings are springing up too close to lot lines, creating jammed sidewalks and alleyways. And the sun does not shine on the streets like it once did.


He supports the Mirvish project, which would preserve his street, known as Restaurant Row. But he is battling a separate 47-story building that would go up steps away from his restaurant.


The plan, which still must be approved, would retain the historic facades of buildings on the street, which Carbone believes will destroy the character of the row.


“It’s a tough battle,” said Carbone, who launched the website SaveRestaurantrow.com to drum up support in opposition to the project. “You can’t have a condo on every corner.”


WHERE IS TORONTO HEADED?


Some believe Toronto is at a crossroads as developers, politicians and citizens debate the rapid changes the city’s urban landscape.


The Globe and Mail’s Marcus Gee dismissed the idea that the development was somehow bad for the city in a column in October, saying the condo boom “has transformed our once-pokey downtown into a vibrant, around-the-clock urban community.”


David Lieberman, an architect who also teaches at the University of Toronto’s architectural school, agrees the new developments have been good for the city, but he is not sure the city’s citizens are ready for it.


“We have such an excellent opportunity to get things right, but there is the Canadian conservatism,” Lieberman said, sipping coffee in his studio in an old downtown Toronto house. “Canadians in their city building are not risk takers.”


(Reporting By Russ Blinch. Editing by Janet Guttsman and Douglas Royalty)


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Boston Cop Rescues Drowning Woman






A Boston police officer is being hailed a hero after he jumped into the frigid cold water to rescue a drowning woman.


Cell phone video showed police officer Edward Norton plunging into Fort Point channel Friday afternoon during a torrential downpour to rescue the unidentified woman who’d reportedly fallen in by accident.






Norton, who just happened to be in the right place at the right time, says he didn’t think twice about jumping in.


“It just kind of happened. I saw here there. Someone had to do it,” Norton told ABC News. “As I was in the air, I was thinking I don’t know what’s under the water.”


Once in the water, Norton’s bullet-proof vest weighed him down, making the rescue more complicated than he anticipated. Onlookers did their part by tossing in a life preserver, which helped keep the frantic woman afloat.


“She kept saying stuff like, ‘I can’t hold on.’ So, I told her, ‘Hold on. Help is coming,’” Norton said. The officer remained with the woman in the water until firefighters arrived on the scene and pulled them both out of the water to safety.


Both were taken to local hospitals and checked for hypothermia, but were released with a clean bill of health.


As for the people calling Norton a hero, he says, not really because it’s all in a day’s work.


“I feel like I did what I would expect to do for one of my loved ones. My wife, my daughter, anyone,” Norton said.


While everyone made it out of the water safely with no injuries, there was one casualty so to speak. Norton says his wedding band slipped off when he hit the water and hero or not, his wife is none too pleased.


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Jessica Simpson’s Christmas gift: She’s pregnant






NEW YORK (AP) — Jessica Simpson‘s daughter has the news all spelled out: “Big Sis.”


Simpson on Tuesday tweeted a photo of her baby daughter Maxwell playing in the sand, the words “Big Sis” spelled out.






The 32-year-old old singer and personality has been rumored to be expecting again. The tweet appears to confirm the rumors.


“Merry Christmas from my family to yours” is the picture’s caption. Simpson used a tweet on Halloween in 2011 to announce she was pregnant with Maxwell. She is engaged to Eric Johnson and gave birth to Maxwell in May.


One possible complication regarding her pregnancy: She is a spokeswoman for Weight Watchers.


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Obesity declining in young, poorer kids: study






NEW YORK (Reuters Health) – The number of low-income preschoolers who qualify as obese or “extremely obese” has dropped over the last decade, new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.


Although the decline was only “modest” and may not apply to all children, researchers said it was still encouraging.






“It’s extremely important to make sure we’re monitoring obesity in this low-income group,” said the CDC‘s Heidi Blanck, who worked on the study.


Those kids are known to be at higher risk of obesity than their well-off peers, in part because access to healthy food is often limited in poorer neighborhoods.


The new results can’t prove what’s behind the progress, Blanck told Reuters Health – but two possible contributors are higher rates of breastfeeding and rising awareness of the importance of physical activity even for very young kids.


Blanck and her colleagues used data on routine clinic visits for about half of all U.S. kids eligible for federal nutrition programs – including 27.5 million children between age two and four.


They found 13 percent of those preschoolers were obese in 1998. That grew to just above 15 percent in 2003, but dropped slightly below 15 percent in 2010, the most recent study year included.


Similarly, the prevalence of extreme obesity increased from nearly 1.8 percent in 1998 to 2.2 percent in 2003, then dropped back to just below 2.1 percent in 2010, the research team reported Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.


Whether kids are obese is determined by their body mass index (BMI) – a measure of weight in relation to height – and by their age and sex.


For example, a four-year-old girl who is 40 inches tall would be obese if she was 42 pounds or heavier. A two-year-old boy who is 35 inches tall qualifies as obese at 34 pounds or above, according to the CDC’s child BMI calculator. (The CDC’s BMI calculator for children and teens is available here:.)


The new findings are the first national data to show obesity and extreme obesity may be declining in young children, Blanck said.


“This is very encouraging considering the recent effort made in the field including by several U.S. federal agencies to combat the childhood obesity epidemic,” said Dr. Youfa Wang, head of the Johns Hopkins Global Center on Childhood Obesity in Baltimore.


Blanck said between 2003 and 2010 researchers also saw an increase in breastfeeding of low-income infants. Breastfeeding has been tied to a healthier weight in early childhood.


Additionally, states and communities have started working with child care centers to make sure kids have time to run around and that healthy foods are on the lunch menu, she added.


Parents can encourage better eating by having fruits and vegetables available at snack time and allowing their young kids to help with meal preparation, Blanck said.


Her other recommendations include making sure preschoolers get at least one hour of activity every day and keeping television sets out of the bedroom.


“The prevalence of overweight and obesity in many countries including in the U.S. is still very high,” Wang, who wasn’t involved in the new study, told Reuters Health in an email.


“The recent level off should not be taken as a reason to reduce the effort to fight the obesity epidemic.”


SOURCE: http://bit.ly/JjFzqx Journal of the American Medical Association, online December, 25, 2012.


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Taking on Guns and the NRA, One Tweet at a Time






(Updates the number of video views, petition signatures, and twitter impressions)


On Dec. 21, a group of A-list Hollywood celebrities, including Jon Hamm, Reese Witherspoon, Jamie Foxx, and Beyoncé, posted an 80-second, black-and-white video clip on YouTube calling for lawmakers to develop a comprehensive plan to deal with gun violence. The clip, uploaded the same day the National Rifle Association held a press conference calling for armed guards in schools and no new restrictions on guns, has been viewed 4 million times.






The public service announcement is well-produced and hits all the intended emotional chords as it reminds viewers of mass shootings from Columbine to Newtown. It’s is part of a broader “Demand a Plan” social media campaign by the advocacy group Mayors Against Illegal Guns that was launched right after the Newtown massacre. (The group is co-chaired by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg L.P., which owns Bloomberg Businessweek.) The video also raises an intriguing question: Can social media strategies somehow level the playing field with the NRA, a laser-focused, well-financed, and successful lobbying group with four million members?


John Feinblatt, who oversees MAIG and is a chief policy adviser to the mayor, is ready to go on the offensive with the NRA and thinks the moment has arrived for the gun safety movement  to make legislative advances. He says there is “enormous pent up frustration because Americans want to be safe.” Facebook (FB), Twitter, and YouTube (GOOG) can effectively focus that raw energy on Congress and President Barack Obama to get things moving and undercut the NRA’s clout in Washington. “What people want is to be heard and you have to give them that vehicle,” says Feinblatt.


The Demand a Plan site delivers that video testimonials of 30-plus survivors and victims’ family members and all manner of online tools to mobilize support and donations to pressure the White House and Congress. Some 600,000 users have signed an online petition to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines, require criminal background checks on every gun sold in the U.S., and crack down on arms trafficking. The Demand a Plan campaign has generated 10 million tweet impressions since its launch on Dec. 17, according to Feinblatt. This chart of Google search results for “gun control” shows interest spiking far higher after Newtown, compared with responses to other shooting incidents, going back to 2005.


Yet it’s worth asking if a “Twitter Revolution,” to borrow from the Arab Spring lexicon, can change the U.S. gun policy debate over the long haul? Social media is a great technology for disseminating information, organizing protests, and expressing spontaneous emotion—but it is unclear how effective it might be in a prolonged legislative battle to sway, cajole, and basically electorally threaten lawmakers beholden to the NRA and gun industry money.


“Signing an online petition is easy, but getting the continuing electoral and financial support of millions is difficult,” says Harry Wilson,  a gun industry expert and a public policy professor at Roanoke College in Virginia. “If gun control groups, including MAIG, are not significantly emboldened and empowered by the Newtown tragedy, then they have lost the battle.”


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